Week ending September 12, 2026
RED RIVER VALLEY REPRICED THIS WEEK
The Potato Market Pressure Index for Red River Valley reads 37 out of 100 (mildly long), up 32.3 points on the week. The loosening is led by how much has shipped against the same week last season.
In 225 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 52% of them; of the weeks that moved, 64% went the signalled way, averaging +2.7% over the following four weeks.
Both crops are being quoted: the 2026 crop opened Aug 10 and prices $3.50 over the 2025 crop across 13 matching item(s) (+20.7%). Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 11, +$1.77 against the old crop.
Growing areas
| Area | Index | Band | Momentum | Price signal | Size spread | Shipped, season | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | 71 | Tightening | -30 | ↑ Up | $16.00 widening | — | — |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | 60 | Mildly tight | 37 | ↑ Up | $9.33 | — | — |
| Wisconsin | 65 | Mildly tight | 26 | ↑↑ Strong Up | $10.33 widening | — | — |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | 69 | Tightening | 43 | ↑↑ Strong Up | $16.34 widening | — | — |
| Red River Valley | 36 | Mildly long | 45 | ↑ Up | — | — | — |
Year-ago figures compare the same week of the marketing season (week 8 of this season against week 8 of last), and season to date is cut at that same week.
Idaho
Index 71 · Tightening ↑ UpShipping below last year's rate with prices holding — supply is staying disciplined.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 705,800 | — | — |
| Sep 5 | 577,800 | -18.1% | — |
| Sep 12 | 573,900 | -0.7% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Sep 12 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s moved | 40.20 | 42.60 | 43.00 | 44.00 | +3.80 | +87.5% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s moved | 40.20 | 42.60 | 43.00 | 44.00 | +3.80 | +87.9% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s moved | 39.60 | 40.60 | 41.00 | 41.00 | +1.40 | +82.9% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s moved | 38.40 | 40.60 | 41.00 | 41.00 | +2.60 | +83.5% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s moved | 30.60 | 31.00 | 31.00 | 32.00 | +1.40 | +72.7% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags non size A moved | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 12.00 | -2.00 | +10.9% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb mesh sacks non size A moved | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 13.00 | -2.00 | +10.0% |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags non size A moved | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 10.00 | -2.00 | +13.4% |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb mesh sacks non size A moved | 13.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 11.00 | -2.00 | +12.0% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | +0.00 | +61.4% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s | 26.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | +0.00 | +61.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb sacks 10 oz minimum | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | +0.00 | +64.4% |
| RUSSET 50 lb sacks 6 oz minimum | 19.50 | 19.50 | 19.50 | 19.50 | +0.00 | +62.9% |
In 39 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 39% of them; of the weeks that moved, 58% went the signalled way, averaging +4.3% over the following four weeks.
Colorado / San Luis Valley
Index 60 · Mildly tight ↑ UpShipping heavily with prices holding flat — the pipeline is filling.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 44,700 | — | — |
| Sep 5 | 288,000 | +544.3% | — |
| Sep 12 | 199,400 | -30.8% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Sep 12 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s moved | 37.00 | 36.00 | 36.00 | 36.00 | -1.00 | +31.9% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags size A moved | 20.50 | 20.20 | 20.00 | 20.00 | -0.50 | — |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags size A moved | 18.50 | 18.20 | 18.00 | 18.00 | -0.50 | — |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s | 28.25 | 28.60 | 29.00 | 29.00 | +0.75 | +29.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s | 39.50 | 40.60 | 41.00 | 41.00 | +1.50 | +37.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s | 39.50 | 40.60 | 41.00 | 41.00 | +1.50 | +37.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s | 39.50 | 40.60 | 41.00 | 41.00 | +1.50 | +37.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s | 39.25 | 40.60 | 41.00 | 41.00 | +1.75 | +37.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s | 29.00 | 29.60 | 30.00 | 30.00 | +1.00 | +25.4% |
In 29 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 45% of them; of the weeks that moved, 63% went the signalled way, averaging +2.9% over the following four weeks.
Wisconsin
Index 65 · Mildly tight ↑↑ Strong UpShipping heavily with prices holding flat — the pipeline is filling.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 129,900 | — | — |
| Sep 5 | 170,700 | +31.4% | — |
| Sep 12 | 142,600 | -16.5% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Sep 12 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s moved | 26.20 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 | -2.20 | +2.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s moved | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | +0.40 | +17.2% |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags size A moved | 21.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | -1.00 | +4.0% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | +0.40 | +17.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | +0.40 | +17.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | +0.40 | +17.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s | 36.20 | 35.00 | 35.00 | 35.00 | -1.20 | +15.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | +0.00 | +14.2% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags size A | 23.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | -1.00 | +3.6% |
In 34 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 50% of them; of the weeks that moved, 71% went the signalled way, averaging -0.4% over the following four weeks.
Washington / Columbia Basin
Index 69 · Tightening ↑↑ Strong UpShipping heavily with prices holding flat — the pipeline is filling.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 173,500 | — | — |
| Sep 5 | 184,000 | +6.1% | — |
| Sep 12 | 132,900 | -27.8% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Sep 12 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s moved | 40.00 | 40.00 | 41.00 | 43.00 | +3.00 | +68.1% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s moved | 40.00 | 40.00 | 41.00 | 43.00 | +3.00 | +68.1% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s moved | 36.00 | 36.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | +4.00 | +57.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s moved | 36.00 | 36.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | +4.00 | +57.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s moved | 27.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 30.00 | +3.00 | +43.7% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags moved | 14.00 | 13.50 | 11.50 | 11.50 | -2.50 | — |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags moved | 12.00 | 11.50 | 9.50 | 9.50 | -2.50 | — |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s | 21.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | +1.00 | +36.4% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s | 23.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | +0.00 | +31.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb sacks 10 oz minimum | 18.50 | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | +0.50 | +18.8% |
In 26 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 27% of them; of the weeks that moved, 90% went the signalled way, averaging +10.1% over the following four weeks.
Red River Valley
Index 36 · Mildly long ↑ Up| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 0 | — | — |
| Sep 5 | 64,000 | — | — |
| Sep 12 | 26,100 | -59.2% | — |
In 225 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 52% of them; of the weeks that moved, 64% went the signalled way, averaging +2.7% over the following four weeks.
Delivered cost
FOB plus freight into each destination, compared on one matched carton. This routinely disagrees with the FOB table, which is the entire reason it exists: an area quoting under Idaho is not the cheaper option into Boston if its lane costs more.
| Destination | Origin | FOB | Freight | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | Idaho | $40.80 | $12.32 modelled | $53.12 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $9.71 modelled | $50.51 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $6.57 modelled | $47.07 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $14.93 modelled | $52.93 | |
| Baltimore | Idaho | $40.80 | $13.81 modelled | $54.61 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $12.10 modelled | $52.90 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $6.33 modelled | $46.83 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $16.11 modelled | $54.11 | |
| Boston | Idaho | $40.80 | $15.24 modelled | $56.04 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $14.01 modelled | $54.81 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $7.58 modelled | $48.08 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $17.30 modelled | $55.30 | |
| Charlotte | Idaho | $40.80 | $13.15 modelled | $53.95 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $10.85 modelled | $51.65 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $6.55 modelled | $47.05 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $15.68 modelled | $53.68 | |
| Chicago | Idaho | $40.80 | $9.66 modelled | $50.46 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $8.19 modelled | $48.99 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $2.55 modelled | $43.05 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $12.00 modelled | $50.00 | |
| Dallas | Idaho | $40.80 | $8.75 modelled | $49.55 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.80 | $5.43 modelled | $46.23 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $7.30 modelled | $47.80 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $11.44 modelled | $49.44 | |
| Denver | Idaho | $40.80 | $4.22 modelled | $45.02 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.80 | $2.27 modelled | $43.07 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $7.02 modelled | $47.52 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $6.92 modelled | $44.92 | |
| Detroit | Idaho | $40.80 | $11.18 modelled | $51.98 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $9.82 modelled | $50.62 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $3.61 modelled | $44.11 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $13.42 modelled | $51.42 | |
| Houston | Idaho | $40.80 | $10.21 modelled | $51.01 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.80 | $6.79 modelled | $47.59 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $8.45 modelled | $48.95 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $12.88 modelled | $50.88 | |
| Los Angeles | Idaho | $40.80 | $6.18 modelled | $46.98 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $6.09 modelled | $46.89 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $12.71 modelled | $53.21 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $38.00 | $6.94 modelled | $44.94 | |
| Miami | Idaho | $40.80 | $16.00 modelled | $56.80 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $12.98 modelled | $53.78 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $10.71 modelled | $51.21 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $18.69 modelled | $56.69 | |
| Minneapolis | Idaho | $40.80 | $7.55 modelled | $48.35 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $6.92 modelled | $47.72 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $2.44 modelled | $42.94 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $9.70 modelled | $47.70 | |
| New York | Idaho | $40.80 | $14.48 modelled | $55.28 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $13.00 modelled | $53.80 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $6.85 modelled | $47.35 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $16.67 modelled | $54.67 | |
| Orlando | Idaho | $40.80 | $14.76 modelled | $55.56 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $11.85 modelled | $52.65 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $9.30 modelled | $49.80 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $17.43 modelled | $55.43 | |
| Philadelphia | Idaho | $40.80 | $14.20 modelled | $55.00 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $12.60 modelled | $53.40 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $6.63 modelled | $47.13 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $16.44 modelled | $54.44 | |
| Phoenix | Idaho | $40.80 | $5.92 modelled | $46.72 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.80 | $4.17 modelled | $44.97 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $10.91 modelled | $51.41 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $7.72 modelled | $45.72 | |
| Riverside | Idaho | $40.80 | $6.09 modelled | $46.89 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $5.81 modelled | $46.61 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $12.46 modelled | $52.96 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $38.00 | $7.01 modelled | $45.01 | |
| San Antonio | Idaho | $40.80 | $9.57 modelled | $50.37 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.80 | $6.07 modelled | $46.87 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $9.04 modelled | $49.54 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $12.18 modelled | $50.18 | |
| San Diego | Idaho | $40.80 | $6.61 modelled | $47.41 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $6.00 modelled | $46.80 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $12.72 modelled | $53.22 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $38.00 | $7.60 modelled | $45.60 | |
| San Francisco | Idaho | $40.80 | $5.77 modelled | $46.57 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $7.25 modelled | $48.05 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $13.23 modelled | $53.73 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $38.00 | $5.33 modelled | $43.33 | |
| Seattle | Idaho | $40.80 | $5.09 modelled | $45.89 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $8.51 modelled | $49.31 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.50 | $11.97 modelled | $52.47 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $38.00 | $2.40 modelled | $40.40 | |
| St. Louis | Idaho | $40.80 | $9.27 modelled | $50.07 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $7.12 modelled | $47.92 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $3.93 modelled | $44.43 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $11.82 modelled | $49.82 | |
| Tampa | Idaho | $40.80 | $14.60 modelled | $55.40 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $11.60 modelled | $52.40 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $9.42 modelled | $49.92 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $17.28 modelled | $55.28 | |
| Washington DC | Idaho | $40.80 | $13.73 modelled | $54.53 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.80 | $11.97 modelled | $52.77 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.50 | $6.30 modelled | $46.80 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $38.00 | $16.05 modelled | $54.05 |
Not compared: Red River Valley — does not quote russet cartons currently
Only Central Minnesota is quoting yellow cartons this week, so there is nothing to compare it against yet.
Not compared: Idaho — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Colorado / San Luis Valley — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Wisconsin — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Washington / Columbia Basin — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Red River Valley — does not quote yellow cartons currently
Only Central Minnesota is quoting round red cartons this week, so there is nothing to compare it against yet.
Not compared: Idaho — does not quote round red cartons currently; Colorado / San Luis Valley — does not quote round red cartons currently; Wisconsin — does not quote round red cartons currently; Washington / Columbia Basin — does not quote round red cartons currently; Red River Valley — does not quote round red cartons currently
Expected movement
| Week ending | Expected | Range | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 1,578,700 | 1,404,900 – 1,710,900 | 1,546,500 |
| Sep 26 | 1,558,000 | 1,386,500 – 1,688,400 | 1,526,200 |
| Oct 3 | 1,647,900 | 1,466,500 – 1,785,900 | 1,614,300 |
| Oct 10 | 1,497,800 | 1,332,900 – 1,623,100 | 1,467,200 |
The range is the week-to-week spread in the season-over-season relationship, not a confidence interval, and not a probability. Last season's movement at the same weeks, scaled to this season running 2.1% ahead of last season over the reference weeks; the range is the week-to-week spread in that season-over-season relationship.
The weeks just gone, nationally
| Week ending | Movement | On the week | A year ago | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 1,403,100 | — | — | +5.6% |
| Sep 5 | 1,631,200 | +16.3% | — | +10.6% |
| Sep 12 | 1,398,000 | -14.3% | — | -9.2% |
The read
THE LAST THREE WEEKS
The national movement has continued to show a mixed pattern, with the week ending Aug 29 showing a 5.6% increase above last season, followed by a 16.3% jump the next week and then a 14.3% drop in the most recent week. Season-to-date totals are 4.9% ahead of last season, and the pace is expected to remain elevated in the coming weeks.
In Idaho, movement has been volatile, with the week ending Aug 29 showing a 2.7% increase above last season, followed by an 18.1% drop the next week and then a 0.7% decline in the most recent week. Prices have been firming across the board, with the average price increase over the three-week window standing at -2.0%. The pace of movement is running 14.8% below its year-ago rate, indicating that the area is shipping below its historical level while prices have held firm.
In San Luis Valley, movement has been heavily above last season, with the week ending Aug 29 showing a 41.0% increase, followed by a 544.3% jump the next week and then a 30.8% drop in the most recent week. Prices have been firming, with the average price increase over the three-week window standing at +1.6%. The pace of movement is running 28.8% above its year-ago rate, indicating that the area is shipping heavily while prices have held flat.
In Wisconsin, movement has been heavily above last season, with the week ending Aug 29 showing a 16.7% increase, followed by a 31.4% jump the next week and then a 16.5% drop in the most recent week. Prices have been easing, with the average price decrease over the three-week window standing at -1.9%. The pace of movement is running 13.9% above its year-ago rate, indicating that the area is shipping heavily while prices have held flat.
In Columbia Basin, movement has been steadily above last season, with the week ending Aug 29 showing a 19.6% increase, followed by a 6.1% jump the next week and then a 27.8% drop in the most recent week. Prices have been firming, with the average price increase over the three-week window standing at +1.7%. The pace of movement is running 27.1% above its year-ago rate, indicating that the area is shipping heavily while prices have held flat.
In Red River Valley, movement has been extremely volatile, with the week ending Aug 29 showing a 100.0% drop below last season, followed by a 100.0% rebound the next week and then a 59.2% drop in the most recent week. Prices have not been reported for this area in the window. The pace of movement is running at a level that suggests severe oversupply, with the Market Pressure Index at 37 out of 100.
ITEMS AND SIZES
In Idaho, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $22.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $44.00 and the 100s cartons at $22.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
In San Luis Valley, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $12.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $41.00 and the 100s cartons at $29.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
In Wisconsin, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $16.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $40.00 and the 100s cartons at $24.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
In Columbia Basin, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $21.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $43.00 and the 100s cartons at $22.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
THE CROP TURN
- Idaho: Both crops are being quoted: the 2026 crop opened Aug 10 and prices are $3.50 over the 2025 crop across 13 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 11, +$1.77 against the old crop. This is the routine annual handover, not a shortage and not a supply gap.
- San Luis Valley: The changeover has run: the 2025 crop was last quoted Aug 14 and the 2026 crop is +$10.19 against it across 7 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Sep 2, +$2.27 against the old crop.
- Wisconsin: The changeover has run: the 2025 crop was last quoted Aug 7 and the 2026 crop is +$3.27 against it across 9 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 19, -$0.85 against the old crop.
- Columbia Basin: The changeover has run: the 2025 crop was last quoted Jul 31 and the 2026 crop is +$4.59 against it across 8 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 4, +$1.20 against the old crop.
WHAT THE MODEL SEES
- Idaho: Expected weekly movement ahead is 1,578.7 (range 1,404.9–1,710.9) for the week ending Sep 19, 1,558.0 (range 1,386.5–1,688.4) for the week ending Sep 26, 1,647.9 (range 1,466.5–1,785.9) for the week ending Oct 3, and 1,497.8 (range 1,332.9–1,623.1) for the week ending Oct 10. The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing; in comparable weeks since 2021, 58% of the weeks that moved went that way, averaging +4.3% over the following four weeks. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 14.8%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
- San Luis Valley: Expected weekly movement ahead is 308.4 (range 274.2–337.6) for the week ending Sep 19, 357.7 (range 317.9–391.4) for the week ending Sep 26, 377.9 (range 335.9–413.6) for the week ending Oct 3, and 301.0 (range 267.5–329.4) for the week ending Oct 10. The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing; in comparable weeks since 2021, 63% of the weeks that moved went that way, averaging +2.9% over the following four weeks. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 26.7%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
- Wisconsin: Expected weekly movement ahead is 178.9 (range 140.8–225.9) for the week ending Sep 19, 192.3 (range 151.3–242.7) for the week ending Sep 26, 166.6 (range 131.1–210.4) for the week ending Oct 3, and 183.5 (range 144.4–231.7) for the week ending Oct 10. The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing; in comparable weeks since 2021, 71% of the weeks that moved went that way, averaging +0.4% over the following four weeks. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 15.5%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
- Columbia Basin: Expected weekly movement ahead is 152.1 (range 140.2–173.0) for the week ending Sep 19, 155.5 (range 143.3–176.9) for the week ending Sep 26, 162.5 (range 149.8–184.9) for the week ending Oct 3, and 163.3 (range 150.5–185.7) for the week ending Oct 10. The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing; in comparable weeks since 2021, 90% of the weeks that moved went that way, averaging +10.1% over the following four weeks. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 8.8%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
- Red River Valley: Expected weekly movement ahead is 80.1 (range 53.9–99.8) for the week ending Sep 26, 31.5 (range 21.2–39.3) for the week ending Oct 3, and 46.2 (range 31.1–57.6) for the week ending Oct 10. The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing; in comparable weeks since 2021, 64% of the weeks that moved went that way, averaging +2.7% over the following four weeks. The area is shipping into a window it was barely active in a year ago, and use the absolute figure.
WATCHING NEXT
- Idaho’s large-over-small spread has widened to $22.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $44.00 and the 100s cartons at $22.00. Continued widening would indicate further pressure on larger sizes.
- San Luis Valley’s expected weekly movement is projected to rise sharply in the coming weeks, with the week ending Sep 26 expected to be 16.0% up from the prior week. Whether that holds depends on movement continuing at current levels.
- Wisconsin’s large-over-small spread has widened to $16.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $40.00 and the 100s cartons at $24.00. Continued widening would indicate further pressure on larger sizes.
- Columbia Basin’s large-over-small spread has widened to $21.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $43.00 and the 100s cartons at $22.00. Continued widening would indicate further pressure on larger sizes.
Agent E. · September 15, 2026
Method and limits
Every indicator is a percentile against the same growing area's own history at the same point in the season, never an absolute threshold. Idaho in October and Wisconsin in February are not comparable on raw volume or raw dollars, and a fixed cut-off would simply re-report the seasonal calendar as though it were news.
Percentiles are ranked against 7 seasons of history. Derived from USDA AMS movement (IF_FV170), shipping-point prices (IF_FV130) and truck rates (FVWTRK). No private order-book data is used.
Market information, not trading advice. Figures are estimates derived from public USDA data and may be revised.
No opinion on direction, no regional preference, and no private order-book data. What is not in any edition →